Outbreak Simulation
The problem of the undead provides a humorous (and necessary) euphemism for pandemic disease. Whilst death is an inevitability, the post-mortem horror of a cannibalistic existence akin to “life” is an exercise in imagination and whimsy – aspects which obviously lack in the realities of real disease and epidemiology.
Kudos to Bruce Schneier for yesterday’s Modeling Zombie Outbreaks post – in turn a reference to the invaluable research of Munz, Hudea, Imad, & Smith:
Susceptibles can become deceased through ‘natural’ causes, i.e., non-zombie-related death (parameter Ὠ).
The removed class consists of individuals who have died, either through attack or natural causes.
Humans in the removed class can resurrect and become a zombie (parameter ᾯ).
Susceptibles can become zombies through transmission via an encounter with a zombie (transmission parameter Ῥ ).
Only humans can become infected through contact with zombies, and zombies only have a craving for human flesh so we do not consider any other life forms in the model.
There is some question to the validity of the Zombie-inspired simulation (it’s a sophomoric venture, after all) though, as a comment on Bruce’s post advised, the simulation of zombie outbreaks is not uncharted territory on the internet:
Zombies are grey, move very slowly and change direction randomly and frequently unless they can see something moving in front of them, in which case they start walking towards it. After a while they get bored and wander randomly again.
If a zombie finds a survivor standing directly in front of it, it bites and infects them; the survivor immediately joins the ranks of the undead.
Survivors are pink and run five times as fast as zombies, occasionally changing direction at random. If they see a zombie directly in front of them, they turn around and panic.
Panicked survivors are bright pink and run twice as fast as other survivors. If a survivor sees another panicked survivor, it starts panicking as well. A panicked survivor who has seen nothing to panic about for a while will calm down again.
- Zombie Infection Simulation v2.3 – The Original
by Kevan Davis
Watch the simulation. Substitute “zombie” for “ebola” and you’ll be closer to understanding the very real horror of an ebola outbreak.
Corollary: a proselytizing simulation in which a small population of “missionaries” interacts with “converts” with an equal probability that converts remain inert (i.e. not proselytizing), become missionaries, or become “fundiementalists” … seems like a synecdoche ripe for examination.
